The Role of Specialisation in the Export Success of Polish Counties in 2004-2015

Objective: The objective of this article is to evaluate the role of specialisation in the export success of counties (powiats) (LAU 1) in Poland between 2004 and 2015. Research Design & Methods: Using panel fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors, the authors investigate the role of export specialisation and product concentration, as well as comparative advantages on the value of log exports per capita, controlling for other important export determinants. Findings: Estimations of the panel model bring the conclusion that specialisation in a positive way contributes to the value of exports per capita, assessed at county level. The robustness of the obtained results has been verified by the use of several concentration and specialisation measures, incl. HHI, Krugman specialisation index, weighted RCA and concentration ratio. Implications & Recommendations: Further research is recommended to capture the consequences of differentiation in the patterns of exports among counties in terms of agricultural vs. industrial goods as well as the low-tech vs. high-tech products. Similar research is recommended to be done at NUTS-2 level in order to inquire into the rationale of smart specialisation(s). Contribution & Value Added: The main contribution of the research is showing the lumpiness of Poland’s exports at county level in terms of product specialisation and concentration. The value added is depicting the positive role of specialisation for the exports success, understood as exports per capita.

The paper is a part of the project entitled “Regional exporting activity. Assessment of determinants in light of contemporary foreign trade theory for Poland and Spain” supported by the National Science Centre of Poland under the grant no. 2015/19/B/HS4/01704.