Complex technical systems safety prediction

There are presented general safety analytical models of complex multistate technical systems related to their operation processes. They are the integrated general models of complex technical systems, linking their multistate safety models and their operation processes models and considering variable at the different operation states safety structures and their components safety parameters. The conditional safety functions at the system particular operation states and independent of the system particular operation states the unconditional safety function and the risk function of the complex technical systems are defined. These joint models of the safety and the variable in time system operation processes are constructed for multistate series, parallel, “m out of n”, consecutive “m out of n: F”, series-parallel, parallel-series, series-“m out of k”, “mi out of li”-series, series-consecutive “m out of k: F” and consecutive “mi out of li: F”-series systems. The joint models are applied to determining safety characteristics of these systems related to their varying in time safety structures and their components safety characteristics. Under the assumption that the considered systems are exponential, the unconditional safety functions of these systems are determined. The proposed models and methods are applied to the safety analysis, evaluation and prediction of the one subsystem of the port grain transportation system related to varying in time their operation processes, structures and components safety parameters.