Estimation of Sea Level Rise in Santos Port (Brazil)

Santos Port is located in São Paulo State Coast (Brazil), in an estuarine area inside Santos Bay named Baixada Santista. The currents behavior is forced by tides. The resulting tidal level variability (high tide, mean sea level and low tide) recorded from Santos Dock Company tide gauge (1940 to 2014), the longest series of continuous record of tides in Brazil, shows a consistent increasing trend. The estimation about the magnitude of mean sea level rise (MSLR) in recommendations, guidelines or requirements issued by different countries and agencies from 1990 provide examples of different approaches used around the world in comparison with the local trends obtained for Santos Port. It is concluded that MSLR will have a considerable impact upon the port, with approximately 1.0 m rise estimated from 1990 to 2100. Baixada Santista is a lowland situated a few meters upper from the sea level and some areas are possible to be submerged in the end of this century. Other two locations in São Paulo State Coast, Cananeia and Ubatuba, respectively to the SE and NW of Santos, were also compared with the port tidal data to evaluate the consistency of the trends.